本文来源：时代财经 作者：幸雯雯
“代理商太难做了，每天找买酒的客户太难了。”2024年，95后林凡放弃了体制内的稳定工作，选择成为某品牌白酒的代理商，没料到名酒开发也不好做，半年只卖出200多件。林凡创业初时的雄心壮志开始动摇，代理生意也逐渐沦为副业。
被行业调整周期裹挟，身经百战的行业老将，信心也被磨平。“往年中秋国庆前我电话接个不停，手机要一直插着充电，2024年水静河飞，真的是个瓶颈。”眼看现有的团购渠道没什么增量，某头部酱酒经销商正另觅合作酒商。
2024年，万亿白酒市场继续剧烈分化，加速向名酒企业和优势产区集中，行业成长空间与挑战并存。在不少从业者看来，如今的白酒圈就像座围城，城内的想出去，城外的想进来。
中小酒厂贴牌业务“降温”，最怕客户砍价
临近过年，茅台镇某二线酒厂的销售经理赵欣算了笔帐，2024年的收入只有20万左右，拿回家过年的钱剩5万不到，“为了抢客户，2024年好多单子都是不赚钱的，有的甚至小亏本，加上平时维护客户的花销，收入比往年少了六成以上。”
入行第四年，销售工作早已得心应手，但赵欣感觉2024年的单子比刚入行当“小白”时还难谈。“以前基本是客户在我这儿买完，没多久他的朋友就直接打电话来下单，几秒钟，一单生意就成了。现在，一些零售小客户也得捡起来做。”
赵欣2024年接触了三四十个贴牌酒客户，最终成交的只有六七个，客户总订货量比往年下滑40%。在他看来，最难的是酒厂相互竞争，酱酒价格越卷越低。
“最怕客户货比三家，回头跟我砍价。但我们酒厂定位中高端，主要做坤沙酒，最低报价也得50块/瓶，量大的可以优惠到45块，而有些酒厂30多块就给他（客户）报了。”赵欣表示，镇上除茅台等知名酒厂外，其他酒厂的酒质都差不多，如果其他酒厂愿意让价，客户很容易被抢走。
对大部分中小酒厂来说，贴牌酒生产成本相对较低，但贴牌业务以走量为主，没有名酒的品牌溢价，利润相对较低。赵欣举例，其酒厂生产的碎沙酒，生产周期两三个月，一瓶只赚一两块钱，一千箱的利润也只有五千元。如果是酒质更好的坤沙酒，500箱起步，毛利在10%-20%。
中国酒业协会发布的《2024中国白酒市场中期研究报告》（下称《报告》）显示，白酒生产端业绩正在加速分化，销售额在100亿元以下的酒企将面临存量竞争，甚至需要应对T9品牌（即其他上市酒企）向下拓展市场所带来的缩量竞争挑战。受调研的100家白酒生产企业中，反映白酒产量、销售量、销售额等经营情况有所下降的主要为全年营业额10亿元以下的白酒生产企业。
2024年5月发布的《遵义市建设全国重要白酒生产基地的调研报告》也提到，市内众多中小企业以贴牌或原酒销售为主，在行业处于中高端扩容而低端挤压的竞争格局下，处境极为被动。
白酒深度调整期叠加“酱酒热”遇冷，与头部酒企收紧条码政策、提高开发品门槛形成鲜明对比的是，中小型酒企贴牌业务大“降温”。
广东某酒商郭翔在2021年“酱酒热”时萌生了做贴牌酒的念头，当时他打听了茅台镇几家酒厂都要50件（箱）以上起步，如今10件就能接单。赵欣也证实了该说法：“为了抢客，规模小的酒厂，一箱都能帮你勾调。”此外，某茅台镇中型酒厂负责人告诉时代财经，其酒厂定制贴牌酒门槛从2023年的500万元降至350万元。
据赵欣观察，全国白酒最大交易批发市场河南百荣市场两年前以销售贴牌酒为主，如今变成销售流通品、名酒开发品和贴牌酱酒三大类。名酒开发品和贴牌贴需要酒厂开条码，由于开新条码商户减少，百荣市场贴牌酱酒整体库存有所下降。
白酒成围城，1688也进来了
受大环境影响，2024年高端商务场景减少，白酒消费分化明显，加上市场内卷、电商价格透明化等原因，名酒价格下行，俨然成为引流品。“就像菜市场卖菜一样，主要是引流、维持店铺开支，很多名酒一瓶赚十块二十块，前期有库存的可能还亏本卖。”郭翔说。
95后林凡原本在湖北某县城当公务员，觉得压力高、工资低，选择创业成为习酒开发酒代理商。他告诉时代财经，像君品、习酒窖藏1988等成熟产品价格很透明，基本没什么利润，而且代理门槛很高，完不成任务也拿不到酒厂返利，而开发酒代理只需要一次性进货30万元。
林凡选了利润比较高的某系列，卖得最好的一款是每瓶利润在100元以上，“进货价200多元，基本能卖350元”。但即使有名品背书，且占据零售市场动销最好的300-500元价格带，动销依然困难。
“白酒具有强社交属性，没有渠道很难卖出去。刚开始两个月我爸带着我卖得还行，现在光靠我卖不动了，都是自家仓库没有压力，就放着呗。”干了半年后，林凡计划的创业变成副业了。
白酒投资人张文指出，按照动销难易程度，名品、名品开发品、二线品牌酒、贴牌酒动销难度依次递增。名品开发酒借品牌优势会先跑一波量，运营得好的话还能活着，像西凤酒知名的华山论剑系列。
除了名酒开发酒，想进“围城”的酒商盯上利润空间更大的贴牌酒。
中国商标网数据显示，2024年三季度（截至2024年9月15日），各省、自治区、直辖市第33类商标（主要包含含酒精的饮料（啤酒除外），如白酒、红酒等）有效注册件数合共1118214件，比去年同期的1026889件多近10万件。http://pc.huayiw.com.cn/b5l/detail/f7x
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缩小至酱酒范围，据贵州省商标统计报告，截至2024年10月，第33类商标有效注册商标件数为124741件，比2023年同期的112864件多11877件。
“因为名酒销售基本没利润了，现在我们都推荐客户做贴牌定制，至少保证酒商有50%以上的利润。比如一款酱酒我们出货价为100元/瓶，它的市场价起码在200元以上。”赵欣表示，市面上同等价位的酱酒，贴牌酒的酒质有时候可能比名酒还好。“贴牌酒主要是销路问题，只要有圈子人脉就行，而且现在人们对贴牌酒的接受度越来越高，很多人会在抖音快手平台上买。”
2023年，抖音酒水销售规模约400亿元，相比2022年呈倍数递增。其中，白酒类规模最大，占比超7成。一类是用来引流的名酒标品，一类是非标品，即贴牌定制品。这类产品具有高毛利、高复购的属性，由于市场集中度不高，仍有巨大的市场空间。
据赵欣所说，他某个潜在客户在江苏卖贴牌浓香酒，进货价40元一箱，卖三四百元一箱，除去人工等成本，每箱利润颇高，“客户在小区做团购活动来获客，一个月销量稳定在1000箱左右。”此外，他的某个贵阳客户2024年订了2000箱，已经卖了1500箱，“剩下500箱是正常的库存，马上要第二轮货了，样品已经发给他了。这个客户之前做互联网的，用大数据去筛选客户。”
近十年间，酒水流通模式经历多轮迭代，移动电商、电商直播、即时零售等模式兴起，不少酒商不再拘泥于传统线下批发渠道。零售巨头阿里巴巴也在去年开始做贴牌酒，撬动这个传统而复杂的赛道。
2024年11月，阿里巴巴旗下源头厂货直销平台的1688高调宣布进军酱酒市场，选择以53度酱酒产品切入赛道，推出329元/瓶、198元/瓶两种价位的产品。广科咨询首席策略师沈萌表示，传统贴牌酒缺少自有品牌的赋能空间，收益微薄、受制于订单客户。而电商平台拥有稳定的客户基础及触达客户的渠道，同时也具有一定的品牌优势。
不过，做贴牌酒除了要解决销路，商标也是一大“雷区”。
为了增加公司利润，经营多年酒水生意的郭翔，最近跟茅台镇某酒厂合作定制20箱自营贴牌酒，没料到在注册商标时“卡壳”，对方收了钱才告知他意向商标早被注册。“谈合作的时候说什么都行，现在违约了，货款还迟迟不退。”最终拉扯了一周，郭翔才收到全部货款。
随着行业竞争不断加剧，2024年白酒圈商标权纷争不断，最备受关注的为夜郎古酒和郎酒的商标之争，郎酒曾提出高达1.9亿余元索赔金额，但最终在双方协商下达成和解。
“现在茅台镇专门有人注册各种商标，等你用了，就起诉你。”赵欣还表示，有些销售为了签单会夸大酒质表现，把50块成本的酒吹嘘到一两百块的水准，号称能卖七八百一瓶，“很多客户对白酒认识不深，轻信了他们，这种情况时有发生。”
做白酒，就是做时间的朋友
2024年，是白酒行业进入深度调整期的第三年，白酒从业者仍在名品价格倒挂、动销不足、终端市场库存难以消化的牢笼中苦苦挣扎。渠道终端的小烟酒店首当其冲，悄无声息地消失在街头巷尾，中游的渠道商库存已成堰塞湖。不堪重负的酒商线上线下低价抛售名品。电商平台“双11”补贴凶猛，进一步冲击名酒大单品价格。
面对行业顽疾，酒企们先后出台“控量稳价”措施，打造样板市场，发力新消费场景获取C端增量。它们纷纷在第三季度主动摘下业绩高增长的光环，找回自身节奏感，给经销商一丝喘息空间。
当前，白酒供需失衡问题依然存在，经销商对新一年“开门红”打款态度冷淡，有经销商继续与厂商共进退，有的不负重荷离开“战船”，传统厂强商弱的关系在修复和调整当中。
展望未来白酒市场，与时代财经交流的多名白酒从业者总体保持乐观态度。
赵欣刚入行时每个月工资只有几千元，但现在手上有一批稳定客户，每个月都有固定的出货量。“酒水这行业长期稳定发展的话，收入很可观，像我们酒厂很多干了十年以上的人，每年收入至少300万。我只要把老客户资源维护好，以后就轻松了。”
原本投资科技行业的张文以为白酒能被资本快速催熟，入了圈之后想法被颠覆，“酒就是时间的朋友，有足够多的钱、足够多的时间，真的可以持续投入，传承给下一代。特别是酱酒，随着时间增长，价值的稀缺性会体现出来。”
（应受访者要求，文中林凡、赵欣、郭翔、张文均为化名）