* 本文原创发布于差评孵化的商业财经类帐号 “ 知危 ”
“ 整体来说，全国有不到 3 万家经销商店，现在只有 10% 还算是盈利， 20% 是持平，剩下 70% 全是亏损。相当于有将近 2 万经销商现在全是亏损的。”王晓宇（ 化名 ）对知危说道。
作为多年的汽车经销商，王晓宇不知道这样的行情还要延续多久，而在此之前，他能做的也就是活下去。
今年以来，关于汽车经销商不景气的新闻已经屡见不鲜。不管是年初的广东某经销商集团濒临破产、旗下 80 余家 4S 店被查封，所有展车一夜之间被银行全部拉走，亦或是前不久国内最大的汽车经销商广汇摘牌退市，无不昭示着这一行正在陷入某种困境。
王晓宇告诉知危：“我现在想的，就是我怎么能把车卖出去。比如说一辆车，厂家定价 40 万，批发价 38 万，一台车利润给我 2 万，对吧？首先我利润不要了，先 38 万卖。还卖不动的话，那就是厂家有返利，比如说一年我卖过 100 台，厂家返我 500 万，那我算一台多少钱，我再把返利的钱提前先让利给用户，再把价格降下来。然后再卖，如果再卖不动，那 OK，我就贴金融贷款，比如说贷 30 万，银行返点 10 个点，3 万块钱，那我 2 万块钱贴到车价里面。”
尽管他知道这样做，只能加剧行业内卷，其他经销商也会说卖得便宜，扰乱市场。“ 但是没办法呀，那我也得活啊。比如我订了 100 台车，现在囤了 6 个月以后，这都是库存车，再囤下去就变二手车了，二手车更不值钱。那我还不如前三个月我就开始抛呢。”
对于国内经销商来说，它们的整体利润包括，售后服务、新车销售、金融保险返点、二手车业务以及完成销售任务后车企支付返点。
尽管新车销售不是贡献利润最大的部分，售后才是，但只有把车卖出去，才有售后的利润。
事实上，在国内经销商的整体利润占比中，2023 年后，新车业务的贡献就已经转为负值，其中更是以燃油车为甚，截至 8 月，经销商进销价倒挂数字最高达 -22.8% 。
“ 现在已经不是挣那个高毛利的时代了，你只能走量，一台车能挣个两、三千的，先卖出去再说。” 据王晓宇介绍，现在燃油车的毛利普遍是 8 个点，新能源车毛利会高一点，大概 10 个点。
而当知危问到，那为什么不去做新能源车的时候，王晓宇略显无奈地回道：“卖得好的人家都还是自营的，那卖得不好的才开始找我们在合作。现在畅销的那些品牌有一些除了自营也有开放经销渠道的，但想拿它们的代理很难拿，需要实力非常强的经销商，比如现在有 4S 转网问界经销商的，一般人都拿不到授权。
北京华阳奥通更换楼面 Logo 转网问界
该店曾是北京最大的奥迪 4S 店
而不畅销的品牌，拿了也没有用。你像原来我们谈的某个品牌，条件给得非常好，车毛利倒是也够，一台三四万。那关键是卖不动，一个月它全国卖几百台。产品不行价格又定得太高，谁买？” 王晓宇接着说道。
据王晓宇介绍，现在租个 4S 店，一年成本就一百多万，装修一下就上两三百万。再加上铺车，如果做的是稍微好一点的品牌，成本就得一千多万。原来都想的是三年回本，现在能不亏本就不错了。
至于为什么现在汽车经销商会面临现在这种局面，王晓宇觉得主要还是三方面原因：
第一，现在车产量太大，从供需上来看，已经从卖方市场转为买方市场了。经济下行期，大家对于买车也大多持观望状态，大家都在抢客户，市场就更偏向买方了。
第二，就是新能源车卷得厉害，以比亚迪为主的那些车，一降价以后就相当于倒逼燃油车没有市场了，比如说比亚迪秦 Plus，原来卖 119800，之后是 109800，现在变成 79800，像卡罗拉原来跟它价格是一样的，如果现在还卖那个价格，谁买呢？油耗比它高，还不享受绿牌政策。http://www.fsLnqp.com/wtq/detail/cii
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第三，4S 店这套体系存在也有三十几年了，有点跟不上时代了。之前是卖方市场，生产销售包括定价权，每年要卖多少都是厂家说了算，但现在是个买方市场。因为厂家跟一线的客户之间是没有直接关联的，它只是把经销商的数据回传而已，它对市场的最终的敏感度，说实在话是要弱一步的。原来 4S 店这个体系是只要听厂商话你就能挣到钱，现在不行了，按照厂商规定的那套东西完成了以后也没有用，还是卖不了车。
在王晓宇看来，目前经销商的卷，源头还是在汽车厂家。
厂家有每年的生产计划，像 24 年年初或者 23 年年底的时候，就要去做 24 年的生产计划，这个计划是有增长惯性的。比如说 23 年卖了 100 万台，它可能 24 年就想卖 120 万台，那有 120 万的生产计划，就要给上游供应链，零部件厂商去定 120 万台的这个生产计划， 2024 年它要生产 120 万台。
王晓宇表示：“ 生产那么多出来，但是实际上销量又跟不上，多出来的那些车怎么办？只能是降价抛了，这个最严重的现在就是丰田和大众这两家。对于经销商来说，就是一层压一层，终端价是厂商定的，本来就卖不出去，厂家还会要求你进货导致压库。那大家就只能卷了。”
经销商的玩法大多是先从银行贷款，通过抵押车辆合格证全款垫付车款，在一定周转期内将新车销售，继而偿还贷款和利息，只有把车卖出去才能保证整个流程循环下去，车的动销非常重要。
那么，类似 4S 的汽车经销商模式会消失吗？
王晓宇认为，虽然新能源品牌现在主流是直营模式，但他不觉得这会是汽车销售的终点，品牌终究还是需要经销商的。
“ 以蔚来、理想它们为代表，包括特斯拉。如果要是说它们只做高端车，我觉得这还能行得通，但如果说它连中低端市场一块去做，我觉得很难。” 他说道。
王晓宇认为，厂家做自营自己去卖车这个事，只在做小区域或者是固定单一人群的时候成立。但如果想做更广大用户或更下沉市场的，那必须利用渠道。
他举了个例子，国内最大的渠道商广汇，巅峰时候有八百多家 4S 店，一年营业额是 1600 亿，一般的厂家一年的营业额都没有广汇的流动资金大。
也就是说，当一家主机厂想迅速扩张门店数覆盖更广泛更下沉用户时，它一定需要有类似 4S 的经销商来做 “ 垫资 ” 的角色。虽然特斯拉的直营模式是非常成功的，但一来特斯拉的目标客群还没有那么下沉，二来不是所有车企都有特斯拉那样强悍的融资能力来获得足够现金流的。
事实上，在传统 4S 店那套销售模式越来越难运行的当下，已经有经销商在探索更多样性的渠道方式。
据王晓宇介绍，目前有专门做汽车融资租赁的（ 零首付以租代购 ）玩家，也有专门做库存车的。
其中，关于某个专做库存车的品牌的模式，王晓宇表示现在算是行业标杆，做得很不错的。
这个模式的核心就是解决了流量的问题，而传统 4S 店是没有流量这个概念的。国内汽车销量是固定的一年 2500 万台到 2600 万台，已经连续五六年了没有大的变化。现在出来这么多品牌，也无非是抢这么点蛋糕，对于经销商来说，谁抢到流量了那谁的车就能卖得好。” 王晓宇表示，这个库存车品牌就是从折扣车这块入手从线上引流。
“ 相当于厂家要抛的那部分车他们批量去接，然后靠低价策略在线上大量投流。就在四川成都，它一个月卖 2000 多台车。”王晓宇解释道。
“ 听起来，有点像拼多多？”
“ 差不多，也可以叫汽车拼多多。”