China’s EV market will slow in 2023. That still leaves it ahead.中国的电动汽车市场将在2023年放缓。这仍然使它保持领先。Expiring subsidies will weigh on electric-vehicle sales, but China’s strength in EVs will prove durable补贴到期将拖累电动汽车销售，但中国在电动汽车方面的实力将证明是持久的
译者：百贝翻译 www.baibeitrans.com
China’s rip-roaringelectric-vehicle industry电动汽车行业will probably downshift a bit in 2023. But it will remain far and away the largest global market—a fact that gives it formidable advantages in the race to dominate the global EV supply chain.到2023年，中国高速增长的electric-vehicle industry电动汽车行业可能会有所放缓。但它仍将是全球最大的市场——这一事实使其在主导全球电动汽车供应链的竞争中具有强大的优势。
Sales of new-energy vehicles in China, which include plug-in hybrids, more than doubled from a year earlier in the first 11 months in 2022 to more than 6 million units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Around a quarter of cars sold in the country are now EVs. That makes China the undisputed EV leader: It accounted for more than half of all EVs sold globally in 2022.根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，2022年前11个月，中国新能源汽车（包括插电式混合动力车）的销量同比增长一倍多，达到600多万辆。现在，该国销售的汽车中约有四分之一是电动汽车。这使得中国成为无可争议的电动汽车领导者：它占 2022 年全球销售的所有电动汽车的一半以上。
EV pioneer Tesla is doing well in China, but many domestic brands have also delivered solid performances—particularly BYD. Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, a small car that starts at around $5,000, has been a surprise winner thanks to its affordable price tag. It is made by a joint venture of General Motors, Liuzhou Wuling Motors and the state-owned SAIC Motor.电动汽车先驱特斯拉在中国表现良好，但许多国产品牌也取得了稳健的表现，尤其是比亚迪。五菱宏光Mini EV是一款起价约为5，000美元的小型车，凭借其实惠的价格出人意料地成为了赢家。它由通用汽车、柳州五菱汽车和国有上汽集团合资生产。
New vehicles are parked for ready for export from a dockyard in Yantai in eastern China's Shandong province on Oct. 13, 2022. China's economic growth accelerated in the latest quarter but still was among the slowest in decades as the country wrestled(AP Newsroom)2022 年 10 月 13 日，中国东部山东省烟台市的一家码头停放新车准备出口。中国经济在最近一个季度加速增长，但仍然是几十年来最慢的增长之一，因为该国正与困难搏斗(AP Newsroom)
On the higher end, local upstarts such as Nio Inc. and Li Auto have rolled out new models that have outcompeted the offerings of many foreign auto makers, which were late to the EV market. Restrictions on issuing new license plates in China’s major cities have also helped boost EV sales because EVs are exempted.在高端市场，蔚来汽车（Nio Inc.）和理想汽车（Li Auto）等本地新贵推出了新车型，这些车型的竞争力超过了许多外国汽车制造商的产品，这些汽车制造商进入电动汽车市场较晚。中国主要城市对发放新车牌的限制也有助于促进电动汽车的销售，因为电动汽车不受限制。
EV sales slowed in recent months owing to the nation’s strict "zero-Covid" policies. Auto makers includingTesla cut prices to attract customers.But sales picked up again slightly in December after the abrupt U-turn in China’s pandemic policies.由于该国严格的“零新冠”政策，近几个月电动汽车销售放缓。包括特斯拉在内的汽车制造商降价以吸引客户。但在中国疫情政策突然掉头后，12 月份销量再次小幅回升。
Unfortunately, that renewed vigor may prove temporary: EV subsidies for purchasers in China will expire at the end of 2022. Many buyers likely brought forward their purchases to take advantage of the subsidies.不幸的是，这种新的活力可能是暂时的：中国购买者的电动汽车补贴将于2022年底到期。许多买家可能会提前购买以利用补贴。
BYD Rolls Off Its 3 Millionth New Energy Vehicle and Debuts A New Passenger Car Brand Matrix(AP Newsroom)比亚迪推出第300万辆新能源汽车并推出新的乘用车品牌矩阵(AP Newsroom)
China’s EV subsidies helped kick-start its market, but have gradually been wound down in recent years. And while the end of the zero-Covid policies should eventually provide much-needed support toChina’s economy,the near-term impact of rising Covid-19 cases could hit sentiment hard.中国的电动汽车补贴帮助启动了其市场，但近年来逐渐减少。虽然零新冠政策的结束最终应该会为中国经济提供急需的支持，但新冠病例上升的近期影响可能会严重打击市场情绪。
Intensifying competition has also led to worries about the rapid cash burn of Chinese EV makers. Share prices have plunged in 2022, even more steeply than the broader market.日益激烈的竞争也引发了人们对中国电动汽车制造商快速烧钱的担忧。股价在 2022 年暴跌，甚至比大盘还要陡峭。
WITH NEW EVS ARRIVING, BRAND LOYALTY GOES OUT THE WINDOW随着新电动汽车的到来，品牌忠诚度消失了
Exports, however, have been a bright spot, and one that could prove more durable. China’s new-energy vehicle exports have more than doubled year-over-year in the first 11 months of 2022, according to CAAM data collected by Wind.然而，出口一直是一个亮点，而且可能更持久。根据Wind收集的CAAM数据，2022年前11个月，中国的新能源汽车出口同比增长了一倍多。
A man wearing a face mask following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak walks by Tesla Model 3 sedans and Tesla Model X sport utility vehicle at a new Tesla showroom in Shanghai, China May 8, 2020. REUTERS/Yilei Sun(Reuters Photos)2020年5月8日，在中国上海的特斯拉新展厅，一名戴着口罩的男子在新冠爆发后走过特斯拉Model 3轿车和特斯拉Model X运动型多功能车。 REUTERS/Yilei Sun(Reuters Photos)
That includes foreign car makers exporting made-in-China EVs to Europe and other parts of the world. Tesla has begun shipping Model 3s and Model Ys to Europe from its Shanghai factory.这包括向欧洲和世界其他地区出口中国制造的电动汽车的外国汽车制造商。特斯拉已开始从其上海工厂向欧洲运送Model 3和Model Y。
BMW and Renault are also making some EV models in China for export. And Chinese brands are also making some inroads in the export market—especially because many legacy car makers seem to be struggling to make affordable EVs.宝马和雷诺还在中国生产一些EV车型用于出口。中国品牌也在出口市场取得了一些进展，特别是因为许多传统汽车制造商似乎正在努力制造负担得起的电动汽车。
Tesla might start to meet more demand in Europe from its Germany plant, which opened in March. But China’s early lead in the EV market gives it an advantage as the world starts to electrify its auto sector. The country dominates the supply chain for battery materials, and its vast market gives EV makers a more viable path to success.特斯拉可能会开始从3月份开业的德国工厂满足欧洲的更多需求。但中国在电动汽车市场的早期领先地位使其在世界开始实现汽车行业电气化时具有优势。该国主导着电池材料的供应链，其广阔的市场为电动汽车制造商提供了一条更可行的成功之路。
China’s EV market will slow further in 2023. But that still, for the most part, puts it miles ahead of the competition.2023年，中国的电动汽车市场将进一步放缓。但在大多数情况下，这仍然使其领先于竞争对手。