任何走到老二位置的国家,都会被老大视为眼中钉,无论第二如何伪装软弱,都是一种事实上的挑战。中国不但是一块肥肉,更是一种力量,没有任何一个老大会对这种力量视而不见。

美国如果找不到新的支点,实现经济的强劲复苏,巩固现有的权力秩序,拉大同中国的距离,恢复曾经有过的自信。那么,中国的任何行动,甚至一个眼神都会被美国视为挑战。

东亚的崛起将形成陆权全面孤立海权的局面,塑造全新的世界格局。在这个行动中,中国不但在制定游戏规则,而且也在向世界输出价值观,这就触动到了美国、英国等盎格鲁撒克逊种族的核心利益。在美版知乎Quora上,美国网友提问道:中国有能力挑战美国吗?这个问题引起各国网友的围观和热议,我们来看看他们的观点。

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问题:中国有能力挑战美国吗?

德国国际问题专家兰斯?钱伯斯的回答

Your idea is too naive. China will not go to war with the United States.

你的想法太幼稚了,中国不会与美国开战。

What China will do is to repel any attack on the motherland, which is why they want to recover the islands in the South China Sea. These islands are being equipped with early warning systems and ultra-high speed weapon systems to destroy American ships and aircraft before they invade Chinese Mainland.

中国将要做的是击退对祖国的任何袭击,这就是为什么他们要收回并把控南海诸岛。这些岛屿正在配备预警系统和超高速武器系统,以便在美国船只和飞机进犯中国大陆之前摧毁它们。

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If the situation becomes tense, assuming that the United States launches an attack first, the rest of the world will oppose the United States more actively than they do now and try to withdraw any and all support for the United States. Some people may also join China to help prevent the conflict from getting out of control. Because the world can't afford the war between the two great powers, we can see from the Ukrainian crisis that the United States is only behind the scenes, providing guns, ammunition and public opinion support, but it never dare to end easily.

如果局势变得紧张,那么假设美国首先发动袭击,世界其他国家将比他们现在更积极地反对美国,并尽量撤回对美国的任何和所有支持。一些人也可能加入中国的行列,帮助防止冲突失控。因为这个世界承受不起两个大国之间的战争,看看本次乌克兰危机就知道,美国只是幕后指挥,提供枪支弹药和舆论支持,却从不敢轻易下场。

The two countries' economic models are diametrically opposed, but they are therefore deadlocked. The United States uses China as its factory for producing goods, while China uses the United States as its largest customer. It is difficult for the two countries to break away from relations.

这两个国家的经济模式截然相反,但却因此触发矛盾僵持不下,美国将中国作为其生产商品的工厂,而中国则将美国作为其最大的客户,两国很难脱离关系。

世界贸易中心示意图

There are two main tools in the US Arsenal to "defeat" China. The first is tariffs, which have proved ineffective after four years of trade war between the two countries. Another means is to try to make the world oppose China by spreading all kinds of rumors slandering China, hoping that the world will support the United States and let them oppose China together - which should not be very useful. After all, there are people who distinguish right from wrong in the world.

美国的武器库中有两个“击败”中国的主要工具。第一个是关税,两国四年来的贸易战证明这并不起作用。另一个手段是试图通过散播污蔑中国的各种谣言来让世界反对中国,希望世界支持美国,让他们一同反对中国——这应该也不太有用,毕竟世界上还有明辨是非的人。

If possible, China needs to win by surpassing the United States in trade and technology. Under the atmosphere of American xenophobia, the return of talents will be the trend. There are two Chinese for every 10 to 12 graduates majoring in science and Technology Engineering in the United States. In addition, half of the 10 students graduating from the United States are not Americans, but overseas students. Most of them will return home rather than stay in the United States under Biden's control. Which scientist from India, China, Spain and other countries would rather stay in the United States than go home and be treated as a Dalit in the United States?

如果可能的话,中国需要通过在贸易和科技方面超越美国来获胜,在美国的排外主义风气之下,人才回流将是趋势。美国每10至12名科技工程专业的毕业生就有2名中国人。此外,在美国毕业的10名学生中,有一半不是美国人,而是海外学生,他们大多数人将回国,而不是留在拜登控制下的美国。哪位印度、中国、西班牙等国的科学家宁愿留在美国也不愿回家,愿意在美国被当作贱民对待?

With the efforts of best DeVos, Trump and the Republican Party, schools in economically depressed areas have destroyed their education systems due to lack of funds and the provision of ostentatious university degrees. These universities have finally proved worthless, but put students in lifelong debt, and elite schools have been unable to produce enough good scientists.

在贝斯蒂·德沃斯(Besty DeVos)、特朗普(Trump)和共和党(Republican)的努力下,经济萧条地区的学校因资金匮乏和提供虚有其表的大学学位而被摧毁了其教育体系,这些大学最终被证明一文不值,却让学生背负终身债务,精英学校已无法培养出足够多的优秀科学家。

With the takeover of East Asia and Europe, the relative strength of the United States is declining, which is also the reason why the United States provokes the Ukraine issue and the Taiwan Strait issue. Most experts believe that it will take China 10 or 20 years to lead the world, and the world needs him, but not that aggressive belligerent hegemony. I think billions of people around the world can't wait for the day when the United States stops managing the earth.

随着东亚和欧洲的接管,美国的相对力量正在下降,这也是美国挑拨乌克兰问题和台海问题的原因。大多数专家认为,中国领先世界需要十年或二十年的时间,世界需要他,但不是那个咄咄逼人的好战霸权。我认为全世界有数十亿人都等不及美国停止管理地球的那一天了。

美国网友帕特里克?阿佩尔的回答

It depends on how failure is defined.

这取决于如何定义失败。

If "failure" means that under the current strategy of the United States to contain China, in the next 20 years or so, China can achieve twice the total economic GDP of the United States, or the per capita income can reach the minimum standard of developed countries and achieve a peaceful rise. I think this goal can be achieved.

如果“失败”是指:在美国当前遏制中国的战略下,在未来20年左右,中国可以实现美国经济gdp总量的两倍,或者人均收入可以达到发达国家的最低标准,实现和平崛起,我认为这个目标是可以实现的。

If you want to completely destroy the American economy in the next 100 years, I don't think that will happen. After all, the United States represents a western style democracy. This is a path we have chosen for mankind. I don't want it to be broken and proved to be a hoax before we complete its historical mission.

如果你想在未来100年内彻底摧毁美国经济,我认为这不会发生。毕竟,美国代表着西方式的民主制度。这是我们为人类选择的一条道路,我不希望它在我们完成它的历史使命之前被打破,并被证明是一个骗局。

If someone says that in the more distant future, the economic scale of China and India may be several times that of the United States, I think it is possible. The focus of the world is returning to Asia. The development of human society is based on population. In Asia, capitalist democracy and socialist democracy will become two sides of the coin.

如果有人说,在更遥远的未来,中国和印度的经济规模可能是美国的数倍,我认为这是可能的。世界的重心正在回归亚洲。人类社会的发展是以人口为基础的,在亚洲,资本主义民主和社会主义民主将成为硬币的两面。

If we are talking about the star age in fantasy novels, I think everything is possible, communism may win, or it may become meaningless because of completely subversive social forms and modes of production.

如果我们在谈论幻想小说中的星际时代,我认为一切皆有可能,共产主义可能获胜,或者因为完全颠覆性的社会形式和生产方式,它可能会变得毫无意义。

If we're talking about military conflict.

如果我们在讨论军事冲突。

For at least 20 years, China's definition of victory is to keep the subordinate troops of the United States and its allies 500 kilometers ahead of the coastline in short-term high-intensity conflicts. At the same time, we should strive for time for international mediation to ensure that it will not escalate into an all-out war and a nuclear winter.

在至少20年的时间里,中国对胜利的定义是,在短期的高强度冲突中,让美国及其盟友仆从军队保持在海岸线前方500公里之外。同时争取时间进行国际调解,确保不会升级为全面战争和核冬天。

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各国军费支出比例

China is a growing military power, but the navy is still slightly weaker than the United States, so a war close to China is beneficial to them. Since neither country has the ability or will to invade the other, the only possible hot war in the foreseeable future is the South China Sea or Taiwan issue.

中国是一个不断发展的军事大国,但海军和美国相比还是略显弱势,因此一场靠近中国的战争对他们来说是有利的。由于两个国家都没有能力或意愿入侵对方,因此在可预见的未来,唯一可能发生的热战就是南海或台湾问题。

As far as Taiwan is concerned, the island is too close to China, so China's anti-ship missiles will prevent the United States from doing anything good when China wants to invade. As far as the South China Sea is concerned, the US aircraft carrier battle group cannot go to the South China Sea without China's knowledge. At any given time, only three to four people risk leaving the U.S. military base. They are easily tracked by satellites or many SCS equipment owned by China.

就台湾而言,该岛与中国过于接近,因此中国的反舰导弹将阻止美国在中国想要执行军事行动时加设任何障碍。就南海而言,美国航母战斗群无法在中国毫不知情的情况下前往南海。在任何给定的时间,要只有三到四个人冒险离开美军基地,他们很容易被卫星或中国拥有的众多SCS设备跟踪。

If war breaks out, the position of an aircraft carrier battle group in the South China Sea will be easily monitored by the Chinese, and it will be blown into the seabed by land-based missiles. In 2016, the Chinese Army informed the US military of the geographical coordinates of the US aircraft carrier, immediately curbing an upcoming hot war. Even if the United States takes any of their islands, they will take them back immediately, because a pair of aircraft carrier battle groups cannot fight a land power in China's backyard, and the power of the whole country is under their control.

如果战争爆发,一支航母战斗群在南海的位置会很容易被中国人监测到,它将被陆基导弹炸入海底。2016年中国军方向美国军方通报了美国航母的地理坐标,即刻遏制了一场即将到来的热战。即使我们美国夺走了他们任何的一个岛屿,他们也会马上夺回,因为一对航母战斗群无法在中国后院与一个陆权强国作战,整个国家的力量都在他们的掌握之中。

Another possible scenario is the proxy war of a third country. For example, if we want to invade Venezuela and seize its oil, and China reaches an agreement with the current government, there may be conflict between the two sides.

另一种可能的情况是第三国的代理战争。例如,如果我们想入侵委内瑞拉夺取该国的石油,而中国与现任政府达成协议,那么双方可能会发生冲突。

However, China is unlikely to send troops around the world to protect Venezuela from US invasion. They cooperate with the existing government for mutually beneficial trade. They may sell weapons to this country, making it more difficult for the United States to bite, but if we decide to invade this country, they will not fight us unless it is one of the neighboring countries adjacent to China. However, we all know the results of the Korean War and the Vietnam War. The United States fled. Now the United States is unwilling and unable to suddenly turn hostile

然而,中国不太可能向世界各地派遣军队,以保护委内瑞拉免受美国入侵。他们与现有政府合作,进行互利贸易。他们可能会向这个国家出售武器,使其成为美国更难啃的骨头,但如果我们决定入侵这一个国家,他们不会与我们作战,除非它是与中国相邻的周边国家之一。然而,我们都知道朝鲜战争和越南战争的结果,美国落荒而逃。现在美国不愿意也没有能力和中国掀桌子。