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即使每位候选人对美日联盟的态度有所不同，但这更多地体现在推进合作的深度和速度上，并不会就联盟本身以及宏观的发展方向提出质疑。日本近一年来在针对中国的策略以及印太战略上的一系列调整说明决策系统内部右翼势力的抬头。在美国对华遏制政策不减的现实下，中日关系极大概率将维持现状，甚至会进一步恶化。
本文作者系盘古智库研究员牟亚迪，文章英文版首发于 Global Times, 标题为“Japan unlikely to change course of being US pawn after domestic power struggle”，节选编译自中文版文章《日本选举日趋激烈 但亲美外交方针将依旧延续》。
Japan unlikely to change course of being US pawn after domestic power struggle
COVID-19 epidemic has led to the fluctuation of Japanese political scene. With other parties in a weaker position, it is widely expected that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will retain its majority in the National Diet, the Japanese legislature, after elections. This means that whoever wins the LDP leadership election is likely to serve as Japan's new prime minister. Three members of the party have announced their candidacy for the leadership. They are former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, current Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform Taro Kono, and former minister of internal affairs and communications Sanae Takaichi.
Fumio Kishida, 64, is one of the most popular candidates. Judging from his recent statements, Kishida's policy in terms of security, especially the one toward China, is more assertive than that of Yoshihide Suga, the current President of the LDP and Japanese Prime Minister. Kishida is leading Kouchikai, a faction of the LDP known for its dovish, liberal-leaning stance.
As for the economy, Kishida has promised that alleviating the widening income gap in the COVID-19 pandemic will be one of his top priorities if he is elected party president and hence prime minister. And to achieve that, he has proposed to increase government support significantly for people and businesses affected by the epidemic. Kishida has said he would compile a spending package worth tens of trillions of yen (hundreds of billions of dollars) to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic.
Taro Kono, 58, is one of the doves in the LDP that advocate a friendly relationship with China. However, in recent years, his attitude toward China has become more and more assertive, as maritime disputes and conflicts between Beijing and Tokyo keep intensifying and as Tokyo completely tilts toward Washington.
Kono has the support of Suga, and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, the leader of the faction Kono belongs to in the LDP. He is also popular with the public, especially young people, for his "savvy presence on social media" and fluent English. Kono led a recent public opinion poll in Japan, earning 27 percent support, 10 percent more than the second candidate. However, he still hasn't received enough support from senior members of the party.
Sanae Takaichi, 60, is the only female candidate and would become Japan's first female prime minister if elected. Takaichi is not aligned with any faction, but has recently received an important endorsement from Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, who still wields considerable influence in parliament. Like Abe, Takaichi is a staunch conservative. She is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an ultranationalist group that has strived to restore the emperor's "sacred status" and rebuild Japan's armed forces.
Externally, Takaichi advocates amending the Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution to give the Self-Defense Forces more power and denies the existence of the forced recruitment of "comfort women." Internally, she sought to punish media outlets which criticize the government and imprison those who defaced the Japanese national flag.
In any circumstance, Japan's pro-American foreign policy will not change. No matter who wins the position, there is already a consensus within the LDP on continuing Abe's foreign policy and strategy, which emphasizes a close US-Japan alliance. It also persists engagement with so-called like-minded countries within the framework of the Quad mechanism (consisting of the US, Japan, Australia and India).
The next Japanese government will maintain the LDP's strategic insistence and firmly support the US and the Quad alliance. Japan's strategic trajectory will be largely based on its defense cooperation with the US. In this light, Tokyo's China policy will gradually converge with what Washington wants. Even if each candidate's attitude toward the alliance is different, it is more about how deep and fast they will push the cooperation with the US, rather than questioning the alliance itself or its development direction.
There was a sound rebound in China-Japan ties in the later period of Abe's tenure. To some extent, this happened because of Japan's sense of uncertainty about the reckless Trump administration. Clearly, this situational landscape has changed since US President Joe Biden took office. Yet as the US continues its containment of China policies, the relationship between Beijing and Tokyo will likely keep the status quo or even deteriorate.
-中文版-
日本选举日趋激烈 但亲美外交方针将依旧延续
菅义伟“进退失据”，放弃参选
2021年9月3日，日本首相菅义伟宣布将不再竞选自民党的党首，标志着他尚未满一年的首相生涯即将结束。目前，几名自民党内的候选人正在竞选新的自民党总裁。考虑到自民党在日本议会中占据多数席位，新的获胜者有望取代菅义伟成为下一任日本首相。由于日本国内疫情形势尚不明朗，菅义伟的声明引起了人们对日本政治不稳定的担忧。
2020年9月16日，菅义伟接任因病辞职的安倍晋三成为日本的第99任首相，此前他一直担任安倍的内阁官房长官。安倍晋三是日本战后执政时间最长的首相，但于去年8月因身体健康问题提前一年辞职，并留下了一系列棘手的政治遗留问题：“安倍经济学”已经受到了现实上的质疑，似乎无法帮助日本经济摆脱通缩的困境，加之增税和新冠疫情的双重冲击，日本经济的发展前景极不乐观；此外，森友学园事件和赏樱会丑闻使得安倍本人以及自民党的形象都受到一定的打击。
当安倍突然决定辞职时，执政的自民党中各派团结在他的得力助手菅义伟的身边，希望菅义伟能在危难中完成安倍余下任期的工作任务，帮助日本有效控制新冠疫情的恶化。渴望稳定的民众也对菅义伟抱有很高的期待，他的支持率在执政初期一度高达74%。但是在他执政后期，民众对菅义伟处理疫情的方式深感失望，他的支持率已经下降到了30%左右。菅义伟在任期间，尽管公众对日本国内疫情深感担忧，但日本政府依然决定在今年夏天举办奥运会。此外，低效却不断延长的国家紧急状态、进展缓慢的疫苗接种工作以及德尔塔变种病毒病例的迅速增加使得医院出现拒收患者的情况，都极大削弱了公众对菅义伟政府的信心。
菅义伟却不属于任何特定派系，也缺乏外交经验。他去年能在内部派系复杂的自民党的选举中能获得主要派系的支持，更多的是因为他容易”被控制“。菅义伟本身并不反华，但细田派和麻生派在菅义伟内阁接连提拔了几个右翼官员，包括岸信夫防卫相。虽然有着二阶派自始至终的支持，但菅义伟始终没有处理好自民党内的权力平衡的能力和决策上的魄力，外交上也受制于党内右翼崛起和美国压力，致使他在疫苗安排等一系列针对疫情的措施上犹豫不决，这些拙劣反应最终也导致了他失掉了民众的支持。
除抗击疫情不利之外，自民党也在今年地方选举中遭受了多次惨痛的失败，其中在菅义伟政治故乡横滨市的市长的选举中失利最令自民党痛心。作为自民党总裁的菅义伟难辞其咎，在党内似乎也失去了各方的支持。菅义伟原本设想将众议院解散，在众院选后再确定总裁（不一定通过选举），这是他连任最理想的道路。但实际上他的布局连续受挫，尤其是在改组党役员的努力遭到党内势力极大的反对。下届自民党党首的选举投票将在9月29日举行，而10月4日日本将举行大选，这关系到自民党未来的命运。菅义伟自身准备不足，计划不充分，更加缺乏就职首相的基础。同时失掉日本民众支持与自民党内部信任的他，正陷入“进退失据”之中，似乎放弃才是唯一解。
三位有力竞争者
新冠疫情为日本政坛注入了流动性，自民党总裁的竞选之路正变得逐渐拥挤。在其他政党相对弱势的情况下，自民党被普遍认为在大选后仍将在国会保有过半的席位，这意味着无论谁赢得9月29日的自民党总裁竞选，都很有可能将担任日本新一届的首相。截止到9月9日，日本前外务大臣岸田文雄、日本行政改革担当大臣河野太郎和前内政大臣高市早苗都明确表示参选。
岸田文雄现年64岁，是呼声最高的接班人之一。岸田曾在2012年到2020年任日本外务大臣，是日本在任时间最长的外务大臣。从岸田近期一系列的发言来看，他在安保议题方面的主张，尤其是对华主张，比菅义伟还要强硬。但事实上，与其他候选人相比，岸田已经算是相对温和。他领导着自民党内部有46人的派系“宏池会”。宏池会以立场偏鸽派、倾向自由主义闻名。
在经济方面，岸田提议大幅增加政府对受疫情影响的企业和非正式员工的支持；保持大胆的货币政策立场；他还计划推出一项超过30万亿日元（约2730亿美元）的刺激方案以缓解新冠疫情对日本经济的冲击并重新考虑对投资收入征税的问题；此外，岸田也是数字疫苗护照的倡导者。
河野太郎出生于政治世家，现年58岁，是日本前防卫相。河野家族是日本政坛上著名的亲华派。河野太郎的父亲河野洋平曾担任过自民党总裁以及日本众议院议长等重要职务，发表过著名的“河野谈话”。河野洋平是日本自民党内主张对华友好的著名外交专家、鸽派政治家。河野太郎本人也表示反对日本首相参拜靖国神社。但近年来，随着中日在钓鱼岛以及南海问题上的争端与分歧加剧以及日本完全倒向美国的战略调整，曾身居防卫相的河野太朗对华态度也日趋强硬。
河野背后有着即将离任的菅义伟和副首相麻生太郎的支持，而麻生太郎是自民党内部第二大派系的领导者，这个派系拥有 53 名成员。河野也因其充满活力的社交媒体和流利的英语而受到公众尤其年轻人的欢迎。河野同时也是疫苗担当相，尽管他正在领导日本疫苗推广的过程中面临着巨大挑战，但仍保持了一定的受欢迎程度。不过，虽然河野的民意调查支持度高于岸田，但获党内资深国会议员支持的基础较小。
高市早苗现年60岁，曾任日本总务大臣。高市是候选人中唯一一位女性，若她当选，也会成为日本历史上第一位女首相。高市不与任何派系结盟，但却在近期获得了安倍的重要支持。安倍作为日本任职时间最长的首相，仍然在国会拥有相当大的影响力。与安倍一样，高市也是一个坚定的保守主义者。她是极端民族主义组织Nippon Kaigi的成员，该组织一直致力于恢复天皇的“神圣地位”并重建日本的武装力量。高市对外主张修改《自卫队法》，赋予自卫队更大权限，不承认存在强征“慰安妇”问题。对内主张对批评政府的媒体进行处罚并对破坏日本国旗的人进行监禁。
在极为重视出身、派系和背景的日本，缺乏党内派系的支持，会让她面临很大的阻力。但如果安倍能成功说服细田派——自民党中最大的拥有 96 名成员的派系——支持高市，这将给她带来巨大的优势与帮助。
日本亲美的外交方针不会改变
无论谁赢得总裁职位，自民党内部早已对安倍制定的外交政策战略达成了共识，即强调建立紧密的美日联盟，在 Quad（美国、日本、澳大利亚和印度四方会谈）等框架内与所谓“志同道合”的国家建立联系。其在自由开放的印太构想下的各种政策也受到美国的欢迎。菅义伟是今年拜登当选美国总统后首位会面的外国元首，两人商讨了涵盖国防、新兴技术、基础设施建设和气候变化等领域的一系列问题。菅义伟的继任者很可能会继续推进这些商讨的内容。
下一届日本政府将继续维持自民党一贯的战略坚持，坚定地支持美国和美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚组成的联盟。日本的战略轨迹基本上会基于与美国的防务合作，对华政策也逐步向美国靠拢。即使每位候选人对联盟的态度有所不同，但这将更多地体现在推进合作的深度和速度上，并不会就联盟本身以及宏观的发展方向提出质疑。安倍执政后期中日关系之所以有所升温，一定程度上是由于美国特朗普政府政策的不确定性和同盟关系弱化给日本带来了不安，促使日本选择向中国靠拢，分散外交风险。然而，这种外部条件自拜登就任美国总统以来发生了变化。日本近一年来在针对中国的策略以及印太战略上的一系列调整说明决策系统内部右翼势力的抬头。在美国对华遏制政策不减的现实下，中日关系极大概率会维持现状，甚至会进一步恶化。■
文章英文版首发于 Global Times
图文编辑：柴昕彤
责任编辑：王毅博