-We still have more than 100 days till this election, but at this point you're losing.
-First of all, I'm not losing because those are fake polls.
-It's just over 100 days until the election. This is your "2020 Fix." As we head down the home stretch of the election, Joe Biden has a growing and consistent lead in the polls, with recent polls including one from "The Washington Post" and ABC News showing him leading by double digits. Biden appears to have grown his lead in large part because of negative reviews of the President's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump faces a deficit that has few comparisons in modern politics, especially when it comes to incumbent presidents. At the same time, there are more than 100 days until the election, and things can change.
Here are four things to watch out for.
Number one is a potential Supreme Court vacancy. We learned recently that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has a recurrence of cancer a few months ago. She says she's doing better and plans to stay on the Court for the foreseeable future. But the idea of a vacancy that could push the Court even more towards conservatives is something that could help rally the Republican base. At the same time in 2018, Republicans thought the treatment of then Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh might help them in the midterm elections. In the end, though, the Democrats actually retook the House.
A second thing to watch for as we approach the election is the shift from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. This is something that often helps Republicans, whose voters are more likely to turn out to vote. "The Washington Post" ABC News poll showed Biden leading by 15 points overall. But when you focused on voters who were certain to vote in the election, that margin dropped to 11 points. And when you focused on voters who are certain to vote this time and also voted in 2016, the margin was just 7 points.
A third thing to watch out for is whether Joe Biden stumbles in the closing weeks of the campaign. Biden has a very demonstrative history of committing gaffes as a candidate and has shown himself to be somewhat unsteady at certain points during his campaign. This campaign will shift in the closing weeks. There will be debates, there will be potentially more person-to-person campaigning, and there will be more scrutiny of both candidates.
The fourth thing to watch out for is the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Democrats appear to have built a big advantage when it comes to use of vote by mail, which has been expanding in many states across the country. At the same time, polls show that Republicans are significantly less concerned about the virus, which suggests that election day turnout could be more favorable for them than it might otherwise be.